By the Time You See Ransomware, Your Backups May Already Be Compromised

Detonation Point is where cyber risk stops being an abstract headline and becomes an operational reality. In a recent episode presented by Elastio, host Matt O’Neill sat down with cloud security expert Costas Kourmpoglou at Spike Reply UK to unpack a hard truth many organizations only learn after an incident:

Ransomware doesn’t succeed because attackers are smarter; it succeeds because recovery fails. 

Ransomware Is an Industry

Early ransomware operations were vertically integrated. The same group wrote the malware, gained access, deployed it, negotiated payment, and laundered funds.

That model is gone.

Today’s ransomware ecosystem resembles a supply chain:

• Developers build ransomware tooling
• Initial access brokers sell credentials
• Affiliates deploy attacks
• Negotiators manage extortion
• Separate actors handle payments and laundering

This “Ransomware-as-a-Service” model lowers the barrier to entry and scales attacks globally. No one really needs expert technical skills. They just need access and opportunity.

How Daily Mistakes Set Ransomware in Motion

Ransomware became dominant for a straightforward reason: it pays.

Despite headlines about zero-day exploits, most ransomware campaigns still begin with mundane failures:

• Reused credentials
• Phishing emails
• Third-party access

The uncomfortable reality is that most organizations already assume breaches, yet design security as if prevention is enough. In this Detonation Point podcast, Costas noted, “Many teams over-invest in stopping the first mistake and under-invest in what happens after that mistake inevitably occurs.” 

Attackers don’t rush. Once inside, they:

• Observe quietly and use native tools to blend in (“living off the land”)
• Map systems and privileges
• Identify backups and recovery paths

Ransomware often detonates months after initial access and long after backups have quietly captured infected data.

But Why Paying the Ransom Rarely Works

Ransomware payments are often justified as the “cheapest option.” But data tells a different story:

• Recovery success after payment is worse than a coin flip
• Payments may violate sanctions laws
• Data is often not fully restored or released anyway

As Costas put it, “If you’re willing to gamble on paying the ransom, you might as well invest that money in resilience, where the odds are actually in your favor.” 

One of the most critical insights from the conversation was this: If your business cannot operate, that is not just a cybersecurity failure, it’s a business failure. If your plan assumes everything else still works, it’s not a plan. And, if ransomware detonated tonight, do you know which recovery path would save you, and which ones would make things worse?

Because when ransomware stops being theoretical, only validated recovery determines the outcome.

This blog is adapted from the Detonation Point podcast presented by Elastio.